Building on the insights from the first part of this series, in which we explored the various factors – strategic, psychological, relational, organisational, and contextual – that can make a negotiating partner unpredictable, this second blog addresses the practical question of how to respond to this challenge.
Recognising the sources of unpredictability stemming from your counterpart in a negotiation is a crucial first step, as it enables you to better anticipate uncertainty and protect your interests. More broadly, thorough preparation is essential to ensure a resilient strategy when facing volatility – such a strategy should not only clarify your own objectives, but also anticipate a range of scenarios and reduce uncertainty.
However, unpredictability in a counterpart at the negotiating table, whether deliberate or accidental, can still disrupt your plans and communication, and complicate decision-making regardless of how prepared you are. Nevertheless, rather than viewing unpredictability solely as a threat, it is important to recognise its potential to drive innovative solutions and uncover hidden interests.
By adopting a structured, collaborative approach, unpredictability can be transformed from a source of confusion to an opportunity to solve problems creatively and reach sustainable agreements. So, what strategies can help strengthen your skills in managing unpredictable counterparts?
Image generated by Napkin.ai by Paul Courtois
1.What should the general approach be when faced with unpredictable negotiating behaviour?
When facing an unpredictable counterpart, the first priority is to stay grounded and well-prepared. Clearly define objectives, priorities, and fallback positions so you can stay focused on your core interests and avoid being thrown off by sudden shifts or disruptive tactics.
Bring structure and clarity to the negotiation by using clarifying questions, regular summaries, and structured agendas. Frequent check-ins and written agreements help prevent misunderstandings and provide stability, while systematically confirming agreements reduces confusion and cognitive overload.
Finally, prioritise collaboration over confrontation. Focus on joint problem-solving and invite your counterpart to work on solutions. This cooperative approach helps restore trust and increases the chances of reaching creative, mutually beneficial outcomes, even in challenging negotiations.
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Illustrative fictitious situation: Amid intense drafting sessions for new digital data protection guidelines, a policy advisor from the Council’s General Secretariat finds herself collaborating with a legal officer from the European Commission who is renowned for his unpredictable negotiation style. During meetings, the legal officer repeatedly changes his position – sometimes embracing new proposals enthusiastically, only to reject them hours later. He also raises new concerns at the last minute and insists on revisiting decisions that seemed final.
To manage these disruptions, the policy advisor focuses on her core objectives and keeps detailed records of all discussions. She opens each meeting with a clear agenda, asks frequent clarifying questions during sessions, and summarises agreements in writing before moving forward. When the legal officer proposes unexpected changes, she pauses to review what has already been agreed, confirms the points in writing and invites him to collaborate with her to find practical solutions.
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2.How can you maintain control when dealing with an unpredictable counterpart?
Maintaining control in an unpredictable situation starts with composure and focus. You should stay calm, avoid mirroring the counterpart’s emotions, and keep the conversation centred on the core issues rather than personal dynamics. You should stick to your principles and main objectives, even when negotiations become tense or confusing.
Using transparency and strategic pauses to maintain control. It is important to communicate clearly your goals and the process for moving forward without revealing vulnerabilities. If discussions become heated or unfocused, you may suggest taking a break to defuse the tension and allow time for reflection.
Regularly reframing the conversation around core interests and shared goals. You should steer discussions back gently to the main objectives to keep negotiations productive and focused on finding common ground, even when unpredictability arises.
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Illustrative fictitious situation: A public health official from Country A is negotiating with a crisis management coordinator from Country B to design a cross-border emergency health response plan. Early in the talks, when the agenda shifts to allocating resources for mobile health units, the coordinator from Country B suddenly becomes frustrated, insisting that vaccine distribution should be prioritised instead, even though this topic is scheduled for a later session. The coordinator then digresses, raising concerns about unrelated cross-border traffic issues and escalating the tension in the room.
To regain control of the situation, the public health official calmly refers to the printed agenda on the table, emphasising the importance of finalising the protocols for deploying the mobile units first, as previously agreed. She addresses the coordinator’s concerns with precise, fact-based language, taking note of the vaccine topic for the next session and agreeing to include cross-border transit on the agenda for a future meeting. As the discussions become increasingly heated, with voices rising, she proposes a ten-minute coffee break to give both sides time to calm down. During the break, she drafts a written summary of the discussion points that have already been agreed upon, which she hands out upon resuming the talks to ensure clarity and shared understanding.
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3.Which techniques can be used to defuse tension with an unpredictable counterpart?
When dealing with an unpredictable counterpart, defusing tension begins with active listening and showing genuine acknowledgement. You should encourage the counterpart to share their concerns and demonstrate that you are listening by restating their key points. Acknowledging their perspective without rushing to respond will make the counterpart feel heard and will often reduce tension.
Humanising the interaction is also crucial. Address concerns directly and use self-reflection or light humour, where appropriate, to ease the atmosphere. Small symbolic gestures or concessions can help to reset the tone and demonstrate goodwill.
Finally, pay attention to non-verbal cues. It is important to learn about a counterpart’s cultural norms, observe their body language, and mirror their communication style subtly. Respect personal space, and adjust the approach when noticing any signs of discomfort. This sensitivity will build trust and help to bridge cultural differences.
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Illustrative fictitious situation: At the Council of the EU, a fisheries official from coastal EU Member State A meets with a counterpart from the coastal EU Member State B to explore the possibilities of finding common ground on annual fishing quotas in sensitive marine areas. The official from Country B arrives visibly tense and rapidly shifts between concerns about local economic impacts and public opinion, making the conversation unpredictable and emotionally charged.
In an attempt to defuse the situation, the official from Country A employs active listening techniques, inviting the official from Country B to fully explain each concern and then calmly summarising and restating the main points. To humanise the exchange, the official from Country A addresses these concerns directly and, when appropriate, lightens the mood by reiterating common ground, highlighting how preserving marine biodiversity also benefits tourism, an important factor for both economies. Noticing the official from Country B’s rigid posture and uneasy glances, the official from Country A subtly adjusts their tone and body language to adopt a style that is respectful yet informal, and that is in line with the official from Country B’s cultural comfort zone. At a pivotal moment, the official from Country A proposes a symbolic gesture: agreeing jointly to advocate for a modest, phased reduction in seasonal quotas within their alliance, paired with a commitment to promote shared scientific monitoring and community engagement to ensure transparency and support among local stakeholders.
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4.How can unpredictability be turned into a strategic advantage?
While unpredictable negotiations can be challenging, they also present unique opportunities when approached thoughtfully. One effective approach is to highlight contradictions in the counterpart’s statements or actions. Since most people want to appear consistent, pointing out these inconsistencies may prompt them to reconsider their demands and adopt a more conciliatory position.
Unpredictability may also be used to redirect discussions towards your strengths. When the counterparts suddenly change their priorities or introduce new demands, you may seize the moment to steer the conversation towards areas in which you are most prepared or can offer clear value. This enables you to regain control and demonstrate your expertise, resources, or unique solutions.
Finally, take advantage of the opportunities that unpredictability reveals. Sudden changes often signal hidden interests or uncertainty. You may thus ask targeted questions to uncover what is really driving the counterparts’ behaviour and propose creative solutions that address both your objectives and the counterparts’ evolving concerns. This can transform volatility into an opportunity for innovation and achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.
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Illustrative fictitious situation: A communications specialist from the Council’s press office and a European Parliament media officer are preparing a joint public awareness campaign on EU voting rights. During the planning stage, the media officer suddenly changes direction, shifting from prioritising social media outreach to demanding an expensive TV advertising campaign, which contradicts previous commitments to a digital-first strategy.
Recognising this inconsistency, the Council specialist tactfully references the media officer’s earlier statements about targeting younger demographics online, prompting a rethink. When the officer then suggests campaign events in cities with traditionally low turnout, the specialist seizes the opportunity to redirect the discussion towards her area of expertise: organising impactful local events with proven engagement tactics. She also takes this opportunity to ask questions to ascertain whether new data or political pressures are driving these demands, and discovers that recent survey results have influenced priorities.
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Conclusion
Thorough preparation and sharp analysis help negotiators to stay focused and resilient, even in uncertain situations. With these skills, unpredictability becomes an opportunity for insight rather than a source of stress, enabling the negotiator to protect their interests and pursue constructive outcomes. By handling inconsistencies in a structured and confident manner, you can overcome unexpected challenges and achieve positive results, even in difficult negotiations.
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Interested in knowing more on how to navigate negotiations with unpredictable counterparts?
Watch the replay of our webinar Unpredictable Counterparts: Negotiation Tips for Success, which brought together negotiation experts and experienced practitioners to discuss this theme. The webinar explored practical strategies, psychological insights, cultural intricacies, and real-life lessons learned, providing participants with actionable advice for managing complex interactions in negotiation processes.
Generative artificial intelligence tools have been used to review and correct wording and potential spelling errors in this blog. The final analysis, arguments, critical insights, and conclusions are the result of the authors’ work and remain under their sole responsibility.
