Institutionalising strategic foresight and economic visioning: Luxembourg strategy and the ECO2050 Vision for Luxembourg’s economy in 2050

Countries

Luxembourg

Policy areas

Organisation name Luxembourg Strategy, the strategic foresight directorate of Luxembourg’s ministry of the Economy

Contact person: Pascale Junker

luxstrategie@eco.etat.lu

https://luxstrategie.gouvernement.lu/fr/eco2050.html

Context

The Luxembourg Strategy, established in 2020 within the Ministry of the Economy, is a governmental initiative designed to improve long-term strategic planning. Inspired by France Stratégie, it aims to integrate foresight practices into public policy-making. This approach tackles uncertainties and rapid change by considering multiple future scenarios.

Objectives

The Luxembourg Strategy has three key objectives. First, to promote a more innovative and systemic approach to public policy. This involves considering long-term consequences and potential disruptions, moving beyond traditional sectoral silos. Second, to achieve strategic coherence by aligning Luxembourg’s numerous national strategies. Many existing strategies have conflicting assumptions or time horizons, hindering a unified national vision. Third, the project aims to address ‘reality blindness’ by acknowledging the existential threats posed by climate change, resource scarcity and social issues. The strategy emphasises the need for a sustainable and just economic transition within planetary boundaries.

Implementation

The project began by establishing its mission and garnering political support within the Ministry. It involved extensive stakeholder engagement through meetings, seminars and collaborations with businesses, research institutions and international organisations. A crucial step was setting up a robust governance structure, including ministerial committees, working groups and expert panels. Building foresight capabilities also involved developing tools such as scenario planning, horizon scanning and a public foresight conference.

The project’s core accomplishment is the ‘ECO2050’ vision – a strategic economic road map for Luxembourg by 2050. This vision considers three possible future scenarios – socio-economic sleepwalking, bio-regional circularity and techno-digital optimism – alongside a potential disruptive event, the ‘Red Queen’ scenario. To ensure its relevance, the vision is adaptable to varying economic growth and population projections. It prioritises a balance between technological and social solutions, while fostering private sector participation alongside public investment.

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