Strategic Foresight in Policy-Making: From Anticipating Surprise to Robust Strategy

Policy makers have massive problems imagining that things could be different, and this can easily lead – and in the past it often has – to policy failure. Strategic policy planning often relies on prognoses, expert judgement, or at best ideas of how the future will develop over the mid- to long-term which lacks complexity. Plausible imaginations of structural changes such as geopolitical shifts, technological breakthroughs, political upheavals, wars and conflicts, economic crises, and pandemics are essential for planning and shaping the future successfully. Looking back at the past few years, we see many events and their subsequent consequences that took us by surprise. Notably, politics could only react these events under great stress, with enormous expenditure of resources, and with critical delays. If such unplanned futures were anticipated in time, we would have been better prepared and able to react.

Strategic Foresight is a toolbox that can be used by policy makers – to envision alternative developments to avoid surprises and to prepare for, or even successfully shape, the future. Although most policymakers have heard of scenarios, horizon scanning, and megatrends, their understanding is often insufficient to select the right tools for their specific planning problem. In particular, if policy planners want to enlist external help in conducting a foresight project, they need to have enough expertise to formulate a tailored request for a proposal (RFP).

This course will equip participants with the relevant knowledge about the most essential foresight tools, how these tools can be combined and what it takes to implement them. Participants will learn about explorative scenarios, horizon scanning, megatrends, Delphi analysis, and wild cards. More importantly, participants will learn how to make foresight products that are useful for policy planning, by transforming foresights into strategic foresight.

What will you learn:

• Understand the nature, benefits, and limitations of strategic foresight – Get an overview about the entire foresight toolbox.
• Gain a deeper understanding of the scenario methodology
• Get a better understanding of how to use strategic foresight in policy planning and decision-making.

Course methodology/highlights:

The course introduces many different foresight tools along the foresight process in the policy cycle and thus allows participants to easily identify and discuss opportunities for practical application. The course offers short lectures followed by either plenary discussions or breakout groups working on case studies.

At the end of the course participants will:

• Know the basic concepts of strategic foresight.
• Have gained an overview of common methods and their interrelationships.
• Be able to better assess the quality of foresight products.
• Have an idea of what success factors are for project implementation in the field of foresight.

This course on Introduction to Strategic Foresight is one of 5 courses we are currently offering in the context of the Better Regulation agenda.

Are you interested in taking a different course please click below:

Introduction to the Better Regulation Agenda | Regulatory ex post Evaluations | Regulatory Impact Assessments | Stakeholder Consultation in the Context of Better Regulation

Public officials, civil servants, policy analysts working in the public sector in EU Member States or other countries as well as researchers.

Online Course
For this online course we make use of Zoom

Programme Organiser
Ms Eveline Hermens
Tel: +31 43 3296259
e.hermens@eipa.eu

Discounts
EIPA member fee
EIPA offers a discount to all civil servants working for one of EIPA’s supporting countries, and civil servants working for an EU institution, body or agency

Who are the supporting countries?
Civil servants coming from the following EIPA supporting countries are entitled to get the reduced fee: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden.

For all other participants, the regular fee applies

Early bird discount
The early bird discount is not cumulative with other discounts or promo codes, except for the EIPA member fee.

Who are the supporting countries?
Civil servants coming from the following EIPA supporting countries are entitled to get the reduced fee: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden.

For all other participants, the regular fee applies.

Confirmation
Confirmation of registration will be forwarded to participants on receipt of the completed online registration form.

Payment
Prior payment is a condition for participation.

Cancellation policy
For administrative reasons you will be charged € 50 for cancellations received within 7 days before the activity begins. There is no charge for qualified substitute participants.

EIPA reserves the right to cancel the activity up to 1 week before the starting date. In that case, registration fees received will be fully reimbursed.